Having seen a succession of Closes below the Potential Support line, it was time to get out and wait for NFP. This is the way I have normally controlled my exposure on long-term trades and until we have seen the way the market reacts to tomorrow's announcement it seemed sensible to pull the plug on this trade and re-focus after the dust has settled.
Historically, I've tended to ignore NFP on these types of trades and even taken small add-in ones when I feel I have an angle on where the market is heading. The key difference is that, last year, I had a clear idea of market direction and would normally be holding onto trades that had good profits already locked in. This one was different; not only was it in drawdown but there is still a negative bias on this pair and until the EEC decides on how to handle Greece's deficit, and those of the other small European nations, it might be a struggle to really discover where the market thinks the bottom has been hit.
The US economy seems to be showing signs of recovery and maybe the market feels that the appetite for risk is suffering from indigestion at the moment, but I'm certain that at some point this year the decline of the Dollar (long term) will rear its ugly head again; as always, it's the timing that's crucial.
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