Sorry folks, I'm a bit late getting this one online; life in general and business in particular kept getting in the way. Anywho, here's an explanation of the the last trade which pulled us a nice 100+ pips.
Please feel free to ask for any clarification you need.
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Friday 12 March 2010
Tuesday 16 February 2010
AUDUSD 16 Feb 2010 _ Trade closed
Pleased to say the last two trades closed with a nice profit and I've opened a new one based on the retracement to the 0.9000 area. I'll let the video speak for itself as I've also covered some of my thinking on how I manage running trades to lock my profits in.
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AUDUSD 16 Feb 2010
I've added another trade to the existing position, which has some profit locked in now. We are close to a Resistance area but I felt it was worth looking for a run up to that level with the promise of a breakout above it.
There is some Support being created after the big run up to.8957 so this may appear to be risky but I have often found this to be profitable in the past.
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There is some Support being created after the big run up to.8957 so this may appear to be risky but I have often found this to be profitable in the past.
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Thursday 11 February 2010
Nice little winner....
A tidy 74 pip winner on the last AUDUSD trade and only a small position but while the market is still in flux there's no point being too aggressive.
I'll be looking to see if price can climb and hold above the Daily close at 0.8868 so, for now, I'll leave the pending Buy Stop in place.
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I'll be looking to see if price can climb and hold above the Daily close at 0.8868 so, for now, I'll leave the pending Buy Stop in place.
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Wednesday 10 February 2010
AUDUSD Trades 9/10 Feb 2010
Better late than never, here's an explanation of the last winning trade on this pair and an explanation of the pending orders currently in place.
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Friday 5 February 2010
USDCAD Short 5 Feb 2010
I won't bore you with the thinking on this one as it's all in the video.
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Thursday 4 February 2010
I forgot about this one
I've had this in my bookmarks for a while and tripped over it tonight. It should give you a chuckle, though.
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EURUSD 3 Feb 2010 (Closed)
Having seen a succession of Closes below the Potential Support line, it was time to get out and wait for NFP. This is the way I have normally controlled my exposure on long-term trades and until we have seen the way the market reacts to tomorrow's announcement it seemed sensible to pull the plug on this trade and re-focus after the dust has settled.
Historically, I've tended to ignore NFP on these types of trades and even taken small add-in ones when I feel I have an angle on where the market is heading. The key difference is that, last year, I had a clear idea of market direction and would normally be holding onto trades that had good profits already locked in. This one was different; not only was it in drawdown but there is still a negative bias on this pair and until the EEC decides on how to handle Greece's deficit, and those of the other small European nations, it might be a struggle to really discover where the market thinks the bottom has been hit.
The US economy seems to be showing signs of recovery and maybe the market feels that the appetite for risk is suffering from indigestion at the moment, but I'm certain that at some point this year the decline of the Dollar (long term) will rear its ugly head again; as always, it's the timing that's crucial.
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Historically, I've tended to ignore NFP on these types of trades and even taken small add-in ones when I feel I have an angle on where the market is heading. The key difference is that, last year, I had a clear idea of market direction and would normally be holding onto trades that had good profits already locked in. This one was different; not only was it in drawdown but there is still a negative bias on this pair and until the EEC decides on how to handle Greece's deficit, and those of the other small European nations, it might be a struggle to really discover where the market thinks the bottom has been hit.
The US economy seems to be showing signs of recovery and maybe the market feels that the appetite for risk is suffering from indigestion at the moment, but I'm certain that at some point this year the decline of the Dollar (long term) will rear its ugly head again; as always, it's the timing that's crucial.
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Wednesday 3 February 2010
EURUSD 3 Feb 2010
Having taken a break to clear my mind, I've come back to trading with fresh enthusiasm and will be relying on my old methodology.
This video should give you a clearer idea of where my strengths as a trader lie, rather than the ill-conceived scrambling around the 1-hr charts that overtook me during the Christmas period.
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This video should give you a clearer idea of where my strengths as a trader lie, rather than the ill-conceived scrambling around the 1-hr charts that overtook me during the Christmas period.
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Monday 25 January 2010
Out of the game for a while...
Sorry folks, due to personal circumstances I have to stop trading for now. I'm unable to devote the proper time to assessing trades and this is affecting my performance. I hope that some of what I've shown you is of use to you and I wish you well in the future.
EURJPY Breakout Trade
Simple break of the 128 level taking advantage of general EUR strength.
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Sunday 24 January 2010
Trading S/R with different Brokers
People worry too much about when their broker opens and closes for the day. In practice it doesn't make that much difference. I hope this video will help to ease any concerns you may have on this score.
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Saturday 23 January 2010
Thursday 21 January 2010
Short-term trade on AUDUSD
As we are hitting an area of Support on the Aussie, it seemed worthwhile trying a quick Buy trade on this pair to catch some pips off the bounce.
You can watch this on YouTube, as well.
You can watch this on YouTube, as well.
Wednesday 20 January 2010
The problem with directional bias....
What's driving me mad is I traded brilliantly at Support during the uptrend but haven't been able to bring myself to go short at Resistance during this downtrend. Yet when I look at my levels, both current and historical, I know how accurate those levels are and can see time after time how price works its way up and down from them.
Maybe I had TOO good a run going long and my old brain isn't agile enough to cope with the reversal. The other stupid thing is that I teach everyone to sell at Resistance and buy at Support, but be prepared for price to blow through these levels (that's what stops are for) but have found it hard to commit to contrarian trades.
Maybe I had TOO good a run going long and my old brain isn't agile enough to cope with the reversal. The other stupid thing is that I teach everyone to sell at Resistance and buy at Support, but be prepared for price to blow through these levels (that's what stops are for) but have found it hard to commit to contrarian trades.
EURUSD Short
This has been a major shift in mental approach for me. One problem in being a trend trader is accepting when your bias has to change and realising that it's time to trade in the other direction.
Well, that moment has arrived for me. It may be that I've come into this downtrend too late but felt it was worth tracking this pair down to the next Support area, when I'll look to go long again (perhaps).
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Well, that moment has arrived for me. It may be that I've come into this downtrend too late but felt it was worth tracking this pair down to the next Support area, when I'll look to go long again (perhaps).
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Tuesday 19 January 2010
AUDUSD 19 January 2010
A straightforward buy order set above a PinBar on the 4-hr chart. The yellow support level at .09203 is set on a significant Daily close which you can check on your own charts. Different brokers may show slightly offset levels but they are all near enough to have no effect.
You can watch this as a video on YouTube as well.
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You can watch this as a video on YouTube as well.
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EURUSD Overview
With Price Action as choppy as it is, it's worth taking some time out to really look at the chart and formulate a game plan for the next few days. This video should give you some insight into what I will be watching for when trying to find clues as to what the market wants to do with this pair.
Handling losers as a trader....
I have to say this has been one of the more difficult periods I've had as a trader. As a trend trader I'm used to picking my trades and then simply deciding on whether to hold or close at various S/R levels.
Most of last year (2009) was easy, in terms of assessing the charts; I could pick my entry points, stop and take profit levels and walk away from the chart. If I hadn't set a profit level I found very little trouble in choosing whether to hold and add-in or close and wait for a new signal.
The market, at the moment, has me confused. Nearly every trade I'm making results in a short move into profit but without enough momentum to take price to a level that would justify getting to break even. If all these trades just blew out immediately I could at least stand back and know that I was simply making bad calls.
It's not unusual, when you are going through a period like this, to wonder if it's all worth the hassle. The consolation is that I know the last time I felt this way was also during the same period, ie Christmas/New Year. Coupled with a move to the shorter-term charts, it's clear that I've changed my trading style and am paying the price. The saving grace is that I've kept my exposure low on these trades, so I've limited the overall damage to the account and I know that it will only take a few good trades to get me back where I was before this holiday period.
Most of last year (2009) was easy, in terms of assessing the charts; I could pick my entry points, stop and take profit levels and walk away from the chart. If I hadn't set a profit level I found very little trouble in choosing whether to hold and add-in or close and wait for a new signal.
The market, at the moment, has me confused. Nearly every trade I'm making results in a short move into profit but without enough momentum to take price to a level that would justify getting to break even. If all these trades just blew out immediately I could at least stand back and know that I was simply making bad calls.
It's not unusual, when you are going through a period like this, to wonder if it's all worth the hassle. The consolation is that I know the last time I felt this way was also during the same period, ie Christmas/New Year. Coupled with a move to the shorter-term charts, it's clear that I've changed my trading style and am paying the price. The saving grace is that I've kept my exposure low on these trades, so I've limited the overall damage to the account and I know that it will only take a few good trades to get me back where I was before this holiday period.
Monday 18 January 2010
Today's trade EURUSD long
I've taken this trade based on a series of Inside Bars (IB) on the Daily and 4-hr charts.
Saturday 9 January 2010
Start of a New Year....
Welcome to 2010, let's hope the financial world gets itself back in some sort of order and we can move on to better times. (Well, sometimes it's better to travel in hope than arrive.)
When I look back over the last few weeks, I remind myself of just why I hate trading during the run up to Christmas and the New Year. Even in normal times the market doesn't always follow a consistent pattern and although there are always opportunities to make money whatever the market is doing I do find it hard to get a handle on things.
While all the talk was of Dollar strength, a quick look at the charts shows some inconsistency in the level of sentiment.
For example, here's the AUDUSD since mid-December. Does that show Dollar strength? I appreciate that the difference in each Nation's Interest Rates offers an element of carry-trade incentive for holding Australian Dollars, but true US$ strength would offset this to some extent and I would expect to see this pair trading in a range more like the EURUSD as shown below.
Here's another of the EURUSD; same thing. The Euro is stuck in a range, admittedly, but after the drop to mid-December you would hardly say we have much in the way of Dollar strength showing here.
I must be honest and say I missed several opportunities on the Aussie as I started to look for buying signals on the Euro and, as I prefer to trade only one pair at a time, found myself locked into Euro trades when there were better things on offer on the Aussie. C'est la vie!
Hopefully you can see how the Support levels on both these pairs have proven to be respected and although the Euro hasn't yet broken out of its range, if price can hold above the 1.4300 - 1.4350 area then I would expect the uptrend to be resumed.
When I look back over the last few weeks, I remind myself of just why I hate trading during the run up to Christmas and the New Year. Even in normal times the market doesn't always follow a consistent pattern and although there are always opportunities to make money whatever the market is doing I do find it hard to get a handle on things.
While all the talk was of Dollar strength, a quick look at the charts shows some inconsistency in the level of sentiment.
For example, here's the AUDUSD since mid-December. Does that show Dollar strength? I appreciate that the difference in each Nation's Interest Rates offers an element of carry-trade incentive for holding Australian Dollars, but true US$ strength would offset this to some extent and I would expect to see this pair trading in a range more like the EURUSD as shown below.
Here's another of the EURUSD; same thing. The Euro is stuck in a range, admittedly, but after the drop to mid-December you would hardly say we have much in the way of Dollar strength showing here.I must be honest and say I missed several opportunities on the Aussie as I started to look for buying signals on the Euro and, as I prefer to trade only one pair at a time, found myself locked into Euro trades when there were better things on offer on the Aussie. C'est la vie!
Hopefully you can see how the Support levels on both these pairs have proven to be respected and although the Euro hasn't yet broken out of its range, if price can hold above the 1.4300 - 1.4350 area then I would expect the uptrend to be resumed.
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